Offshore Patrol Vessel Market Outlook

AMI continues its review of naval market segments this month with a look at the future of Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPV).  Ships designed for offshore patrol beyond ranges possible for smaller vessels have been around since the 1960s.  They have typically been designated large or medium cutters reflecting their service with Coast Guards and similar maritime security organizations.  With the growth of ocean sovereignty missions and maritime security requirements, as well as assignment of such missions to navies and other sea service organizations, the OPV has evolved into a distinct vessel type. 

As the chart below notes, investment in OPVs has fallen a bit in the past five years, with total planned spending for the next two decades decreasing very slightly (by US$1.4B, or just over 3 percent, to over US$40B.  OPV market share of total naval and sea service investment has also fallen slightly from 4 to 3 percent of total spending over the same period.  We assess this as partly resulting from increasing investments in more expensive naval combatants and submarines as the global maritime security environment has grown more uncertain.

Vessel Type2022    20-Year Forecasted Value US$B2017    20-Year Forecasted Value US$BChange ($)  Change (%)  2022     Market Share (%)2017     Market Share (%)Change (%)  
OPV41.943.31.4-3.2%3.20%4.30%-1.10%

Despite these marginal declines, the OPV segment remains an active and diverse market, as shown by the four articles in this month’s Hot News covering OPV projects in Japan, the Philippines, Brazil, and Finland.  As the chart below shows, there are almost as many active or forecasted OPV programs around the world as there are for smaller patrol vessels, with 45 countries acquiring or planning to acquire new OPVs through 2042.

Global Count/AverageOPVPC/PV
Projects6480
Countries4554
Hulls275756
Avg size (FLD)2840225
Avg $/Hull (USD M)$153$17.46

OPV designs also vary greatly, perhaps more than for any other ship type.  AMI distinguishes OPVs from larger patrol vessels by size (generally over 700 tons) and range and seakeeping characteristics needed for extended offshore patrols.  The largest OPVs are being acquired by countries in far north or south latitudes and/or expected to operate for extended periods in sea conditions that tend to be challenging.  At the other end of the spectrum are programs for hulls around 1,000 tons designed for work in territorial and/or inshore waters in the middle latitudes.

Largest:  Norway (9,800 tons), Japan (9,000 tons)

Smallest:  El Salvador, Ghana, Japan: (1,000 tons); Russia, Singapore, Nigeria (1,100 tons)

From an acquisition cost perspective, there is more continuity between OPVs and the patrol vessels and craft we looked at last month, as shown in the chart above.  The average OPV tracked by AMI displaces close to 3,000 tons, with most designs concentrated at between 1,500-2,000 tons.  The average cost per ton for the two segments is proportional.  On average US$17M per hull for patrol vessels averaging 225 tons and around US$153M for OPVs that are on average 10 times larger. 

The most expensive OPV programs are found in the US and NATO countries operating in northern waters (Canada, Denmark).  The least expensive OPVs are grouped in countries with small acquisition budgets and less challenging operational environments.

Most Expensive:  US (4,500-ton National Security Cutter; 3,200-ton Offshore Patrol Cutter); Canada (5,700-ton Arctic Class Offshore Patrol Ship (AOPS); Denmark (3,000-ton Future OPV).

Least Expensive: Albania (1,600-ton OPV), Ecuador (2,500-ton Multirole Vessel); Lebanon (1,200-ton Future OPV).

One of the virtues of OPV designs is their flexibility.  Most are designed with considerable storage and additional accommodation space, reflecting a broad number of potential missions and the accompanying need to embark additional personnel and mission equipment.  Flight decks to support helicopter operations remain a common feature, even on smaller displacement OPV designs as small as 1,000 tons.  Increasingly, OPVs are also designed to operate unmanned maritime systems (USV, UUV, UAV), reflecting the increasing number of such systems becoming operational for naval and maritime security missions.

As the OPV market remains robust and of high interest in the industry, they continue to get covered at AMI’s established standard of quality and timeliness of market intelligence.